Is luck real or merely perception? Regardless, the sense of luck influences decision-making. Serendipity, i.e., mediated luck, is clear in hindsight, but can it be cultivated through foresight training? How do concepts of luck and serendipity evolve through learning foresight? We present empirical findings from a hybrid approach combining scenario planning and wargaming, mediated by large language models, to explore these questions.
This talk also examines why the origins of new technologies are difficult to predict, arguing that this stems from an underdeveloped philosophy of science and practice in a field often mischaracterized as purely practice-led. We propose a philosophy centered on creating knowledge through forward conjecture—uniting scholarly inquiry, foresight, and technology development within a single framework that emphasizes anticipation as a foundation for innovation and discovery.